2017’s top 100 journal articlesBrain power

When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts

Part 2 of a miniseries reviewing selected papers from Altmetric’s list of the top 100 most-discussed journal articles of 2017.

Advances in artificial intelligence are expected to transform modern life. By anticipating these changes, we can plan for them for effectively. With this in mind, a May 2017 paper1 surveyed a large number of machine learning researchers in regard to their views about progress in AI.

The survey used the following definition for the point at which machines outperform humans:

“High-level machine intelligence” (HLMI) is achieved when unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers.

Key findings were:

  • Progress in AI may appear intrinsically hard to predict, but there are reasons for optimism in regard to the accuracy of the survey results.
  • AI is predicted to outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a truck (by 2027), working in retail (by 2031), writing a bestselling book (by 2049), and working as a surgeon (by 2053).
  • Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating all human jobs in 120 years, with Asian respondents expecting these dates much sooner than North Americans.
  • Researchers believe the field of machine learning has accelerated in recent years.
  • Explosive progress in AI after HLMI is seen as possible but improbable.
  • HLMI is seen as likely to have positive outcomes but catastrophic risks are possible.
  • Society should prioritize research aimed at minimizing the potential risks of AI.

Reference:

  1. Grace, K., Salvatier, J., Dafoe, A., Zhang, B., & Evans, O. (2017). When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts. arXiv preprint arXiv:1705.08807.

Also published on Medium.

Bruce Boyes

Bruce Boyes (www.bruceboyes.info) is editor, lead writer, and a director of the award-winning RealKM Magazine (www.realkm.com) and currently also teaches in the University of NSW (UNSW) Foundation Studies program in China. He has expertise and experience in a wide range of areas including knowledge management (KM), environmental management, program and project management, writing and editing, stakeholder engagement, communications, and research. Bruce holds a Master of Environmental Management with Distinction and a Certificate of Technology (Electronics). With a demonstrated ability to identify and implement innovative solutions to social and ecological complexity, Bruce's many career highlights include establishing RealKM Magazine as an award-winning resource for knowledge managers, using agile and knowledge management approaches to oversee the implementation of an award-winning $77.4 million river recovery program in western Sydney on time and under budget, leading a knowledge strategy process for Australia's 56 natural resource management (NRM) regional organisations, pioneering collaborative learning and governance approaches to support communities to sustainably manage landscapes and catchments, and initiating and teaching two new knowledge management subjects at Shanxi University in China.

Related Articles

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Back to top button